122
LIKELIHOOD OF THESE POSSIBILITIES
Of the two dozen possibilities, most presently appear to be very unlikely. Some of them, however, seem to be more possible. Num- ber 3, The Sour Lemon, would seem to be an ever present danger. One reason why the Hong Kong authorities have pushed hard for a decision by China in the last year or so is to avoid a plummetting of morale in Hong Kong.
Number 12, The Goaded Dragon, is a case with the present moderate government open to taunts. This could not be done as openly as in countries that follow some version of the liberal-demo- cratic system of government, for the media are subject to central control and open dissidence or opposition is strongly discouraged. In the past such opposition has been done by means of presenting the message through literature, as stories or especially plays, often based upon an historical event well known in China that offers critical parallels with current practice. On occasion, one newspaper has fallen into the hands of a group with a politically critical mes- sage and it has carried what seems at first to be minor changes but that reflect real differences in views on the correct policy to be promoted. The major newspapers have their allegiances set, the People's Daily is the organ of the Party Central Committee, the Liberation Daily of Shanghai reflects the views of the PLA, and so on, and differences in views may also appear between such news- papers. The small but genuine increases in freedom since 1976 may assist any who wish to goad the dragon.
Number 13, The Civil War Accident, could easily happen as long as the assumption of civil war is made. Until the advent of such war this possibility lies in abeyance, but at any onset of major disturbance the likelihood rises.
Number 16, The South China Aftercomer, involves a slow and perhaps peaceful take-over of Hong Kong, which grows to become an integral part of a lusty South China region. It seems to be a rather likely if long-term solution.
Number 18, Socialist. Leadership (Bilateral), might require a move to unify the socialist world but this is not strictly necessary, although it could perhaps be a sufficient reason. The probability of this situation happening rises if China breaks with the U.S., perhaps over the long-term serious issue of the U.S. not moving to cut off relations with Taiwan and help China to secure its return. China might decide that friendship with the U.S. is proving un-
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.