TNAG-1176-FCO40-1478-Air-services-between-the-UK--China-and-Hong-Kong-1982 — Page 61

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CONFIDENTIAL

FM HONG KONG 26093BZ OCT 82.

TO IMMEDIATE FCO

TELEGRAM NUMBER 1223 OF 26 OCTOBER INFO IMMEDIATE PEKING, DOT/CAIR

YOUR TELNO 495: UK/PRC AIR SERVICES.

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I DO NOT SEE MUCH ADVANTAGE IN ACTION OF THE KIND CONTEMPLATED IN YOUR TEL UNDER REF. THE PROSPECT OF GETTING CATHAY PACIFIC INTO PEKING REMAINS AS DISTANT AS EVER. THE LIKELY BENEFITS OF BRINGING THE CHINESE TO HEEL OVER THE TIANJIN SERVICES WOULD THEREFORE BE MARGINAL: AND THE DIFFICULTIES INVOLVED IN IMPLEMENTING THE THREATS WHICH YOU SUGGEST WOULD NOT JUSTIFY THE ADVANTAGES WHICH MIGHT BE GAINED IN ANY IMMEDIATE NEGOTIATIONS.

2. WE ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER CAREFULLY WHETHER THE BALANCE OF ADVANTAGE FOR HONG KONG LIES IN SEEKING SUCH A SHOW-DOWN. WE CONCLUDED BEFORE THE PRIME MINISTER'S VISIT THAT IT DID NOT. AS SEEN FROM HERE, THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE SINCE THEN TO ALTER THAT JUDGMENT.

3. BOOKINGS THROUGHOUT NOVEMBER ON CATHAY PACIFIC HONG KONG/ SHANGHAI V.V. SERVICE ARE VERY HEAVY. IF SERVICES HAVE TO CEASE ON 31 OCTOBER THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE SCOPE FOR MISGUIDED SPECULATION ABOUT THE CESSATION. IN THAT EVENT, IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO HAVE A LINE AGREED WITH CPA: AND THE EMBASSY CAN NO DOUBT DRAW THE ATTENTION OF THE MFA TO THE LIKELY

EFFECTS OF CAAC'S ACTIONS.

YOUDE

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