A. HONG KONG COULD IN EFFECT LOSE EXCLUSIVE CONTROL OF THE PROJECT, BOTH AS REGARDS CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATIONS.
IF RELATIONS WITH CHINA WERE TO DETERIORATE THE CAPACITY OF THE CHINESE TO MAKE DIFFICULTIES E.G. BY DENYING CONTROL OF AIRSPACE WOULD BE MUCH GREATER THAN IN THE CASE OF CHEK LAP KOK (OR KAI TAK):
C. EVEN IF RELATIONS WITH CHINA REMAIN GOOD, THE INEFFICIENCY OF THE CHINESE BUREAUCRACY WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT (AND COSTLY) DELAYS: GIVEN THE SENSITIVE NATURE OF QUESTIONS IMPINGING ON SOVEREIGNTY, EVEN MINOR TECHNICAL MATTERS MIGHT HAVE TO BE REFERRED TO PEKING.
D. THE CHINESE WOULD BE LIKELY TO EXACT A PRICE FOR THEIR COOPERATION. THIS MIGHT ONLY BE A COMMERCIAL ONE E.G. OVER THE SHARING OF TRAFFIC RIGHTS OR THE AWARD OF CONTRACTS TO CHINESE ORGANISATIONS, BUT WITH CAAC INVOLVED, THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAPACIOUS CHINESE DEMANDS WOULD BE QUITE HIGH.
E. EVEN A FEASIBILITY STUDY OF DEEP BAY COULD NOT BE UNDERTAKEN WITHOUT THE COOPERATION OF THE CHINESE IN MANY AREAS. THE DIFFICULTIES WE ARE HAVING IN ENGAGING THE CHINESE IN TECHNICAL DISCUSSION OVER AIRSPACE MANAGEMENT FOR CHEK LAP KOK SUGGEST THAT THIS WOULD NOT BE EASY TO OBTAIN.
F. TO EMBARK ON A FULL DEEP BAY STUDY COULD FOCUS CHINESE MINDS ON THIS OPTION. IF THEY DECIDED THAT IT WOULD SUIT THEM IF WE WERE TO CHOOSE DEEP BAY, IT MIGHT BE DIFFICULT FOR US TO REJECT IT EVEN IF WE REACHED THE OPPOSITE CONCLUSION.
AS THINGS STAND AT PRESENT IT WOULD NOT BE DIFFICULT TO EXPLAIN TO THEM THAT FOR TECHNICAL AND DEVELOPMENT REASONS WE HAD DECIDED TO DROP DEEP BAY AND CONCENTRATE ON CHEK LAP KOK.
11. THE POSITION WOULD OF COURSE BE ALTERED IF THE QUESTION OF HONG KONG'S FUTURE WERE TO BE SATISFACTORILY RESOLVED DURING THE NEXT TWO YEARS OR SO. BUT MANY OF THE DISADVANTAGES OUTLINED IN PARA 10 ABOVE WOULD REMAIN.
12. WE ARE THEREFORE INCLINED NOT TO PROCEED FURTHER WITH THE DEEP BAY OPTION AND TO INFORM EXCO (AND SUBSEQUENTLY NCNA) ACCORDINGLY. BEFORE DOING SO WE SHOULD LIKE TO BE SURE THAT OUR ASSESSMENT OF THE POLITICAL DISADVANTAGES OF DEEP BAY AS SET OUT IN PARAS 8 TO 10 ABOVE IS SHARED BY OTHERS BETTER QUALIFIED TO PRONOUNCE ON THEM.
13. A COPY OF THE PRELIMINARY FEASIBILITY STUDY IS BEING SENT TO
PEKING BY BAG.
SIGNED R J T MCLAREN.
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