TNAG-1167-FCO40-1447-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1982 — Page 145

DRAFT

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A

TO BE INSERTED IN OPTIONS PAPER AS NEW PARA 2

2.

DSR 11C

2.

will in itself be an important factor. We can expect

The Prime Minister's visit to Peking in September 1982

confidence in Hong Kong to be maintained until then.

There will be strong expectations that Hong Kong's future will

be discussed, if not decided. Definite agreement is in fact

most unlikely but there might be an undertaking by both sides

to start serious discussions. Public knowledge of this would

keep confidence up but there would be two problems. Once

embarked upon, talks must succeed. A collapse (or public

belief that they were failing) would hit confidence badly.

On the other hand, the Chinese are unlikely to be ready to

hurry; therefore it would be equally risky to set a time limit

for conclusion of the talks. Opinion in Hong Kong would

need to be prepared for a long haul during which strictly

confidential contacts would continue.

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