DRAFT
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A
TO BE INSERTED IN OPTIONS PAPER AS NEW PARA 2
2.
DSR 11C
2.
will in itself be an important factor. We can expect
The Prime Minister's visit to Peking in September 1982
confidence in Hong Kong to be maintained until then.
There will be strong expectations that Hong Kong's future will
be discussed, if not decided. Definite agreement is in fact
most unlikely but there might be an undertaking by both sides
to start serious discussions. Public knowledge of this would
keep confidence up but there would be two problems. Once
embarked upon, talks must succeed. A collapse (or public
belief that they were failing) would hit confidence badly.
On the other hand, the Chinese are unlikely to be ready to
hurry; therefore it would be equally risky to set a time limit
for conclusion of the talks. Opinion in Hong Kong would
need to be prepared for a long haul during which strictly
confidential contacts would continue.
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