TNAG-1147-FCO40-1427-UK-policy-towards-South-East-Asia--including-Hong-Kong-1982 — Page 47

Vietnamese refugees?

SOME QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION

What would be the implications of improved Sino-Soviet relations for a settlement in Cambodia?

1.

Does

2. Will the Cambodian resistance coalition hang together? ASEAN have a strategy for dealing with Vietnam or are they simply improvising their approach to each phase at it comes?

3.

What are Vietnam's real objectives within the Indochinese peninsula and elsewhere in the region? Can we see Vietnam being persuaded by military, economic or any other pressure to withdraw from Cambodia?

4. Do Vietnam's growing economic difficulties (request for IMF help over debt rescheduling, likelihood of decrease in COMECON support) offer an opening for the West to apply political pressure? Is there anything to be said for keeping a line open to Vietnam through the French? What part should the UK play in Western policy on Cambodia given our relatively limited interest and influence?

5. Will ASEAN continue to develop or is there a risk of regression or disintegration? What are the implications of enlargement?

6.

Can we rely on ASEAN countries continuing to be more or less Western orientated and resistant to Communist influence? What are the prospects for increased Chinese influence in South East Asia; when would this be beneficial to our interests and where the reverse? Can we do anything to limit or reduce Soviet influence in the region?

Is ASEAN likey to develop a joint defensive capability? Implications for defence sales of common procurement policies?

8. How long can the more vulnerable ASEAN countries survive recession without having to make drastic reduction in their development plans? What are the prospects for economic recovery in the wider East Asian area including Hong Kong and Japan?

What are the chances of Singapore rivalling Hong Kong as a financial centre?

9.

10. Should we see Japan as an ally or an enemy in South East Asia? Should we seek to cooperate more with Japanese commercial concerns active in the area if we cannot compete effectively with them? How far is their advantage attributable to their aid input?