ت
1
trade makes her particularly vulnerable to protectionism. Thailand's traditional regional markets for her agricultural exports are also shrinking as the other ASEAN countries approach self-sufficiency.
Singapore
5.
With a negligible debt problem and a very sound economy thanks to successful restructuring in the 1970's towards skill-intensive production, Singapore should be able to maintain its international competitiveness. Singapore is likely to benefit from any loss of confidence in Hong Kong and may become an increasingly important financial centre.
Philippines
6.
The economy has been growing at a slower rate than the rest of ASEAN and long-term prospects are less favourable. The government has been borrowing heavily since 1975 and the debt service ratio has now risen to 25% of export earnings. The Philippines has lagged behind Thailand in developing non-oil energy resources and increasing industrial efficiency. She has not benefitted form falling oil prices because she is tied into long-term contracts. The only bright spot is gradual replacement of Marcos's cronies in the top echelons of the public service by able technocrats from the private sector who are determined to implement the IMF's long overdue adjustment programme.
Brunei
7
•
Brunei probably has the highest per capita income in Asia. With a narrow oil-based economy Brunei faces the same problems as the small Gulf states. At present levels of production (125,000 bopd, about half capacity) Brunei's oil reserves should last about 25 years but could run out much sooner if oil prices rise and production levels increase. The problem is whether Brunei is able to diversify her economic base sufficiently rapidly before the oil runs out. Brunei's economy may suffer if there is a Chinese exodus after independence.
- 2 -
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.