TNAG-1147-FCO40-1427-UK-policy-towards-South-East-Asia--including-Hong-Kong-1982 — Page 122

Х

GRS 585,

CONFIDENTIAL

M FCO 031800Z DECEMBER 82

TO PRIORITY BANGKOK

CONFIDENTIAL

TELEGRAM NUMBER 449 OF 3 DECEMBER

AND TO PRIORITY JAKARTA, KUALA LUMPUR, MANILA, SINGAPORE, BRUNEI, RANGOON, HANOI, VIENTIANE, HONG KONG (FOR MCLAREN), BTC HONG

KONG AND TOKYO (FOR WHITEHEAD)

MY 2 IPTS: HEADS OF MISSION CONFERENCE, BANGKOK, 13/14 DECEMBER

FOLLOWING ARE QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION:

SINO-SOVIET IMPACT

1. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF ANY IMPROVEMENT IN SINO-SOVIET

RELATIONS FOR THE REGION AND FOR CAMBODIA IN PARTICULAR?

'INDO-CHINA'

2. WILL THE CAMBODIAN RESISTANCE COALITION HANG TOGETHER?

DOES ASEANHAVE A STRATEGY FOR DEALING WITH VIETNAM?

3. WHAT ARE VIETNAM'S REAL OBJECTIVES AND WHAT ARE THE

CONSTRAINTS ON HER? CAN THE WEST INFLUENCE HER BEHAVIOUR?

4.

AT WHAT LEVEL CAN WE EXPECT THE REFUGEE PROBLEM TO PERSIST?

PROSPECTS FOR ASEAN (POLITICAL)

5. CAN WE RELY ON ASEAN COUNTRIES CONTINUING TO BE MORE OR

LESS WESTERN ORIENTATED AND RESISTANT TO COMMUNIST INFLUENCE?

CAN WE REDUCE SOVIET INFLUENCE AND DO WE WANT TO REDUCE CHINESE

INFLUENCE?

6. WILL ASEAN CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OR IS THERE A RISK OF

REGRESSION OR DISINTEGRATION?

7. IS ASEAN LIKELY TO DEVELOP A JOINT DEFENSIVE CAPABILITY AND WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR DEFENCE SALES?

ROLES FOR US AND JAPAN

8.

9.

WHAT ARE US INTENTIONS? WHAT ROLE ARE THEY READY TO PLAY?

SHOULD WE SEE JAPAN AS A PARTNER OR A RIVAL IN SOUTH EAST

HAS JAPAN A PART TO PLAY IN REGIONAL DEFENCE? HOW FAR IS

HER COMMERCIAL ADVANTAGE ATTRIBUTABLE TO HER AID INPUT? PROSPECTS FOR ASEAN (ECONOMIC)

ASIA?

10. HOW LONG CAN THE MORE VULNERABLE ASEAN COUNTRIES SURVIVE

RECESSION? WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY?

11. WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF SINGAPORE RIVALLING HONG KONG AS A FINANCIAL CENTRE?

12. CAN THE POLITICAL WILL FOR CLOSER EC/ASEAN RELATIONS BE USED TO DEFUSE SOME OF THE PRESENT TENSIONS BETWEEN THE 2 GROUPS ON ECONOMIC ISSUES? HOW CAN IT BE MANIFESTED MORE EFFECTIVELY? BARRIERS TO TRADE

13. IS ASEAN LIKELY MORE OFTEN TO CONCERT ACTION AND IF SO WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR BRITISH TRADE? IS A REQUIREMENT FOR

COUNTER-PURCHASING LIKELY TO BECOME GENERAL AND IF SO HOW SHOULD

WE DEAL WITH IT? IS DISCRIMINATION LIKELY TO BE USED MORE OFTEN

AS A LEVER TO EXTRACT CONCESSIONS IN UNRELATED FIELDS? 14. WHAT REACTION HAS THERE BEEN TO EC AND UK ROLES IN MFA NEGOTIATIONS AND THE GATT MINISTERIAL MEETING IN GENEVA? PROSPECTS FOR BRITISH TRADE/INVESTMENT

15. HAS THE RECENT MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN BRITISH INDUSTRY'S COST COMPETITIVENESS BEEN REFLECTED IN ITS PERFORMANCE IN SOUTH EAST ASIA? HAS THE BETTER STRIKE RECORD AND IMPROVEMENTS IN DELIVERY

CONFIDENTIAL

/ HAD