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GRS 585,
CONFIDENTIAL
M FCO 031800Z DECEMBER 82
TO PRIORITY BANGKOK
CONFIDENTIAL
TELEGRAM NUMBER 449 OF 3 DECEMBER
AND TO PRIORITY JAKARTA, KUALA LUMPUR, MANILA, SINGAPORE, BRUNEI, RANGOON, HANOI, VIENTIANE, HONG KONG (FOR MCLAREN), BTC HONG
KONG AND TOKYO (FOR WHITEHEAD)
MY 2 IPTS: HEADS OF MISSION CONFERENCE, BANGKOK, 13/14 DECEMBER
FOLLOWING ARE QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION:
SINO-SOVIET IMPACT
1. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF ANY IMPROVEMENT IN SINO-SOVIET
RELATIONS FOR THE REGION AND FOR CAMBODIA IN PARTICULAR?
'INDO-CHINA'
2. WILL THE CAMBODIAN RESISTANCE COALITION HANG TOGETHER?
DOES ASEANHAVE A STRATEGY FOR DEALING WITH VIETNAM?
3. WHAT ARE VIETNAM'S REAL OBJECTIVES AND WHAT ARE THE
CONSTRAINTS ON HER? CAN THE WEST INFLUENCE HER BEHAVIOUR?
4.
AT WHAT LEVEL CAN WE EXPECT THE REFUGEE PROBLEM TO PERSIST?
PROSPECTS FOR ASEAN (POLITICAL)
5. CAN WE RELY ON ASEAN COUNTRIES CONTINUING TO BE MORE OR
LESS WESTERN ORIENTATED AND RESISTANT TO COMMUNIST INFLUENCE?
CAN WE REDUCE SOVIET INFLUENCE AND DO WE WANT TO REDUCE CHINESE
INFLUENCE?
6. WILL ASEAN CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OR IS THERE A RISK OF
REGRESSION OR DISINTEGRATION?
7. IS ASEAN LIKELY TO DEVELOP A JOINT DEFENSIVE CAPABILITY AND WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR DEFENCE SALES?
ROLES FOR US AND JAPAN
8.
9.
WHAT ARE US INTENTIONS? WHAT ROLE ARE THEY READY TO PLAY?
SHOULD WE SEE JAPAN AS A PARTNER OR A RIVAL IN SOUTH EAST
HAS JAPAN A PART TO PLAY IN REGIONAL DEFENCE? HOW FAR IS
HER COMMERCIAL ADVANTAGE ATTRIBUTABLE TO HER AID INPUT? PROSPECTS FOR ASEAN (ECONOMIC)
ASIA?
10. HOW LONG CAN THE MORE VULNERABLE ASEAN COUNTRIES SURVIVE
RECESSION? WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY?
11. WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF SINGAPORE RIVALLING HONG KONG AS A FINANCIAL CENTRE?
12. CAN THE POLITICAL WILL FOR CLOSER EC/ASEAN RELATIONS BE USED TO DEFUSE SOME OF THE PRESENT TENSIONS BETWEEN THE 2 GROUPS ON ECONOMIC ISSUES? HOW CAN IT BE MANIFESTED MORE EFFECTIVELY? BARRIERS TO TRADE
13. IS ASEAN LIKELY MORE OFTEN TO CONCERT ACTION AND IF SO WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR BRITISH TRADE? IS A REQUIREMENT FOR
COUNTER-PURCHASING LIKELY TO BECOME GENERAL AND IF SO HOW SHOULD
WE DEAL WITH IT? IS DISCRIMINATION LIKELY TO BE USED MORE OFTEN
AS A LEVER TO EXTRACT CONCESSIONS IN UNRELATED FIELDS? 14. WHAT REACTION HAS THERE BEEN TO EC AND UK ROLES IN MFA NEGOTIATIONS AND THE GATT MINISTERIAL MEETING IN GENEVA? PROSPECTS FOR BRITISH TRADE/INVESTMENT
15. HAS THE RECENT MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN BRITISH INDUSTRY'S COST COMPETITIVENESS BEEN REFLECTED IN ITS PERFORMANCE IN SOUTH EAST ASIA? HAS THE BETTER STRIKE RECORD AND IMPROVEMENTS IN DELIVERY
CONFIDENTIAL
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