only about 5%. The Consultants forecast that by 1985 more than 90% of the aircraft fleet using Hong Kong will be wide-body aircraft.
The growth in the number of aircraft movements at Kai Tak has actually declined in recent years because these wide-body aircraft have been able to accommodate the increased passenger volume without generating a corres- ponding increase in the volume of aircraft operations. The transition, however, is approaching completion. As it does, the growth rate of the average aircraft size will slacken. The annual aircraft movements will again resume a growth pattern, and the 1979 traffic figures reflect the resumption of growth with a 6% increase. The Standard Busy Rate (a typical planning parameter) is forecast to increase from approximately 25 aircraft movements per
hour in 1978 to about 52 movements per hour in the plan- ning horizon of 1995, or an increase of more than 100%.
Of equal importance to the replacement airport planning effort is the phenomenal growth in air cargo. Hong Kong enjoys a position as one of the largest air cargo centres in the world, and the outlook for air cargo growth is equally promising. The increased manufacture of advanced technology products, continued export of Chinese products through Hong Kong, increasing local demand for consumables to support the tourist industry, and continually increasing resident affluence all combine to ensure the continued dynamic growth in air cargo through the mid-1980s. A more normal rate of increase is forecast for the remaining years in the planning period. By 1995, the volume of air cargo is expected to increase to nearly six times the level of 1978, representing about 1,200,000 tonnes of cargo in 1995. This volume will be about twice that handled today at any of the world's major air terminals.
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