The forecasting effort included both a review of the detailed analytical approach used in the 1973-1975 long- term studies and an update and reapplication of the methodology on a judgmental basis. Estimates were made of air passenger traffic generated by Hong Kong residents and of traffic to and from the mainland and new regional destinations. Figure 3 shows the historical and forecast trends in the traditional logarithmic graphic presentation and also relates (as boxed areas) the annual traffic volumes in absolute terms. The forecasts indicate a more than fourfold increase over the 1978 traffic levels at Kai Tak during the specified period, reaching a level of about 24.5 million passenger arrivals and departures in the planning year of 1995.
6
In terms of airport facilities, the characteristic pattern and quantity of aircraft operations is more important than the annual volume of passenger and cargo traffic. The aircraft fleet serving Hong Kong consists primarily of long-range jet aircraft, and during the past few years this fleet has been transitioning rapidly to wide-body aircraft. The average number of seats in passenger aircraft now serving Hong Kong is 226, which is considerably greater than at most major air terminals, reflecting the absence of domestic service at Hong Kong. This transition to wide-body aircraft is emphasized by a comparison: as of January 1979, about half of the aircraft operations at Hong Kong were performed by wide-body aircraft; during the same month in 1972, the figure was
PASSENGER ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES (THOUSANDS)
HISTORICAL
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 1955-1978 = 17.3%
FORECAST
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 1978-1995 = 9.1%
CALENDAR YEAR
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
1979 ACTUAL (6,230,137)
5,000
4,000
3,000
2.000
1,000
500
400
300
200
100
100
50
40
30
20
1365
10
LOS MILLION PASSENBERAL
FORECAST
CALENDAR YEAR DATA 1969-1978
FISCAL YEAR DATA 1955-1956 TO 1968-1969
PASSENGERS
8000 DUBY HOUR PASSERTERS
30 BUSY HO AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS
PASSENGER
3057 BUSY IF PRESENBENS
24 BUSY BOER
AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS
PASSENGERS
1410 BUSY
52 BUST HOUR AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS
Figure 3 - Annual Air Passenger Demand
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