TNAG-1059-FCO40-1309-Guangdong-nuclear-power-station-project-1981 — Page 8

Latest available projections of demand, of capacity required to meet it, and of installed generation capacity for CLP based on the completion of Castle Peak 'B' station, pump storage in China and one unit of Castle Peak 'C' station, but without a nuclear power station are:

Maximum demand

MW

1981 1985

2, 160

3,270

1990

1992

4,850

4,640

Capacity required

MW

2,528

3,842

5, 894

7,035

Capacity installed

MW

2,656

4,056

6, 126

7,236

The capacity required is calculated to cover at any one time 96% of maximum demand, the sudden loss of the largest generating set in the territory and 18% of installed plant being unavailable because of maintenance.

19

If CLP take at least 60% of the output of the nuclear station (paragraph 17 above), then CLP should be able to postpone the third unit of Castle Peak 'B' station from 1988 to 1990 at the earliest and the fourth unit from 1989 to 1993; and Castle Peak 'C' could be built some time after 1993. As far as reliability is concerned, they would treat the supply from China as if it came from two 540 MW sets (that is 60% of 900 MW) in Hong Kong. As the largest set then available in Hong Kong will be 660 MW, no extra spinning reserve would be required and the formula for determining capacity required would remain as described in the previous paragraph. The projections would then be:

Maximum

demand

Capacity

required

Capacity installed

MW

MW

MW

1981

2, 160

2,528

2,656

1985

3,270

3,842

4,056

1990

4,850

5,894

1992

6,996

5,640

7,035

6,996

CLP explain that the excess of installed capacity over capacity required around 1990 is to guard against teething troubles in the nuclear station causing less capacity to be available than is at present planned. It derives largely from the timing of the third unit for Castle Peak 'B' which will be considered again in the context of one of CLP's future financing plans, and it may prove possible to postpone it further. Meanwhile the general conclusion is that in terms of the capacity likely to be required up to 1992, there is room for purchasing electricity from a nuclear power station; and to do so would cause the installation of capacity in Hong Kong to be postponed.

SECRET