TNAG-1040-FCO40-1290-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1981 — Page 208

Mr Donald

tele

20

SECRET

HKK Date:

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CHINA/TAIWAN: HONG KONG

ملل

略

To

1. Mr Davies's minute of 2 October. I agree that the Chinese statement on Taiwan could have important implications for Hong Kong. I do not think that at this stage the Chinese intended it to be taken as a direct message to the people of Hong Kong; it is interesting that the statement encourages people in Hong Kong and Macau and Chinese nationals residing abroad to 'continue to act in the role of a bridge and contribute their share to the reunification of the motherland', which has something of an air of status quo about it. Nevertheless, the proposed Taiwan solution could be seen as a model for Hong Kong.

2. Obviously the attitudes of people in Hong Kong and investors outside to such a model would be very much influenced by Taiwan's acceptance of the Peking proposals and their subsequent successful implementation over a number of years. Many of the same suspicions of long-term Chinese intentions and the stability of the regime in Peking which 'The Times' article of 3 October

Can Taiwan really trust Peking?' brought out would apply in the Territory as well.

oftached

below

3. Indeed, people in Hong Kong might be even more nervous about their prospects as an autonomous zone because the risk of absorption into the Chinese system (in the event of a radical administration taking power in Peking) would, on the face of it, be greater there because of their geographical proximity.

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4. Thus, investors and others in Hong Kong would need very strong guarantees that autonomy would in fact be maintained. I suspect that people will be very reluctant to give up the main guarantee which they have at present the British adminis- trative umbrella. In particular, they will need a lot of convincing that an independent currency unit can be maintained without a separate political administration.

бир

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R D Clift

6 October 1981

Hong Kong and General Department

сс

PS/PUS

Mr Bullard

EESD

News Department

Planning Staff

PUSD

Research Dept (FE)

NAD

FED

SECRET