DWF G220/7
Degil
18557 (201
RECEIVED IN REGISTRY NO. 51
09 OCT 1981
DESK OFFICER INDEX
PA
21.00
REGISTRY
Action Taken
The
NO DISTRIBUTION
1587/7
PP F C O
PP HONG LONG
GR 400
SECRET
DE DIP
Pl. let me
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THI MR Donald
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Lo Specik.
minute to Mr. Donald
FM PEKING 7609942 OCT 81
TO PRIORITY F C O
TELNO 603 OF 6 OCTOBER
in this majest
9/10.
INFO PRIORITY HONG KONG (PERSONAL FOR GOVERNOR).
FOR DONALD AUS
MY TELS 593 AND 594: CHINA/TAIWAN:
IMPLICATIONS FOR HONG KONG
1. THE CHINESE INITIATIVE OVER TAIWAN IS INTERESTING, NOT ONLY IN ITSELF, BUT AS AN INDICATION OF POSSIBLE CHINESE LONGER-TERM INTENTIONS OVER HONG KONG. THOUGH THERE ARE OBVIOUS DISSIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE THREE CASES, THE CHINESE, AS YOU KNOW, TEND TO PUT TAIWAN, HONG KONG AND MACAO IN THE SAME BRACKET. THOUGH THEY WILL NOT NECESSARILY OFFER TO HONG KONG ALL THEY OFFER TO TAIWAN, THEIR PROPOSALS SHOULD AT LEAST SHOW THE LIMITS THEY MIGHT FIND TOLERABLE.
2. WHAT IS BEING OFFERED TAIWAN IN ESSENCE IS THE CONTINUATION OF KMT RULE, WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF LOCAL AUTONOMY, INCLUDING THEIR OWN DEFENCE FORCE, PLUS ASSURANCES ON PROPERTY AND FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN RETURN FOR ACCEPTANCE OF THE PRC GOVERNMENT AS THE LEGITIMATE GOVERNMENT OF CHINA, INCLUDING TAIWAN. THE CHINESE ARE CAGEY ABOUT THE PERIOD OF THIS AUTONOMY, BUT PRESUMABLY MANY DETAILS WOULD NEED TO BE LEFT OVER TO ANY NEGOTIATION.
3. A SIMILAR OFFER IN HONG KONG TERMS WOULD BE CONTINUATION OF BRITISH ADMINISTRATION FOR A NEGOTIABLE PERIOD IN RETURN FOR RECOGNITION OF CHINESE SOVEREIGNTY OVER THE WHOLE COLONY. I SEE THAT SOME HONG KONG PERSONALITIES, INCLUDING SIR S Y CHUNG, ARE REPORTED AS HAVING NOTED THE ANALOGY WITH APPROVAL.
4. THE IMPLICATION, AS I SEE IT, IS THAT WITHOUT A CONCESSION ON SOVEREIGNTY WE ARE UNLIKELY TO GET FAR, BUT IF SOME SUCH POSSIBILITY WERE IN THE AIR AN ACCEPTABLE PACKAGE MIGHT JUST BE WORKED OUT.
5. AT PRESENT TAIWAN IS FIRST PRIORITY HERE, THE THE EXCLUSION OF VIRTUALLY EVERYTHING ELSE. DENG'S RELUCTANCE TO TALK ON HONG KONG IN APRIL MAY HAVE HAD SOMETHING TO DO WITH THE PREPARATION OF THIS INITIATIVE. HOW LONG THIS STATE OF AFFAIRS WILL CONTINUE IS HARD TO SAY: THE KMT ARE UNLIKELY TO BE RESPONSIVE AND THE CURRENT PROP OGANDA LEVEL CANNOT BE SUSTAINED FOR LONG. BUT FOR THE PRESENT AT LEAST THE CHINESE WILL PROBABLY BE EVEN MORE RELUCTANT THAN EVER TO TALK ABOUT HONG KONG, UNLESS WE CAN OFFER SOMETHING THAT WOULD FIT EASILY INTO THE TAIWAN FRAMEWORK AND POSSIBLY GIVE IMPETUS TO CURRENT PROPOSALS FOR TAIWAN. I NOTICE. THE PEOPLE'S DAILY OF 2 OCTOBER, COMMENTING ON YE JIANYING'S TAIWAN STATEMENT, EXPRESSED THE HOPE THAT HONG KONG AND MACAO COMPATRIOTS WOULD CONTINUE TO PLAY A BRIDGING ROLE IN BRINGING ABOUT THE 'REUNIFICATION OF
THE MOTHERLAND''.
6. THE ABOVE ARE VERY PRELIMINARY COMMENTS, BUT THEY HAVE SOME BEARING ON OUR PLANNING FOR MRS THATCHER'S VISIT. I HOPE TO WRITE AT GREATER LENGTH IN COMMENT ON YOUR LETTER OF 2 SEPTEMBER TO THE
GOVERNOR.
CRADOCK
Could ir?
NNNN
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