TNAG-1040-FCO40-1290-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1981 — Page 156

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HKK okold

RECEIVELIN SEG STRY NO. 51 29 OCT 1981

DESK OFFICER

FM PEKING 230840Z OCT 81

TO PRIORITY FCO

TELEGRAM NUMBER 644 OF 23 OCTOBER

INFO PRIORITY HONG KONG (PERSONAL FOR GOVERNOR)

FOR DONALD AUS

INDEX

مین

GOVERNOR'S LETTER OF 8 OCTOBER (RECEIVED HERE 21 OCTOBER):

FUTURE OF HONG KONG

1. 1 AGREE WITH THE DETAILED COMMENTS ON THE DRAFT PAPER,

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2. AS REGARDS THE SUMMARY, I HOPE IT WILL REMAIN A SUMMARY AND

WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO INCORPORATE MATERIAL NOT INCLUDED IN THE

MAIN PAPER AND ON WHICH WE ARE NOT YET ALL AGREED E.G.

TACTICS ON THE PRIME MINISTER'S VISIT. TO EXPAND IT IN THIS WAY

WOULD DELAY SUBMISSION TO MINISTERS. AS I SEE IT, IT IS

IMPORTANT THAT THEY SHOULD BE ACQUAINTED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE

WITH THE UNDERLYING ISSUE AND WITH THE MAIN MESSAGE OF THE

PAPER, NAMELY THAT ANY SOLUTION WITH A CHANCE OF CHINESE

ACCEPTANCE IS LIKELY TO INVOLVE SURRENDER OF SOVEREIGNTY-

3. THE TACTICAL QUESTION NEEDS SEPARATE CONSIDERATION. I HAVE

NO DIFFICULTY WITH PARAS 1 4 OF THE GOVERNOR'S DRAFT. ON

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PARAS 5 9 I HAVE THE FOLLOWING COMMENTS.

4. PARA 6. SINCE, AS THE DRAFT STATES, A COLLAPSE OF CONFIDENCE COULD COME SUDDENLY AND BE VERY DIFFICULT TO REVERSE, IT WOULD

NOT BE ENOUGH MERELY TO MAKE THE CHINESE AWARE OF THE

EXISTENCE OF THE PROBLEM. WE SHOULD TRY TO PERSUADE THEM TO MAKE CONTINGENCY ARRANGEMENTS AND EVEN TO REFLECT BEFOREHAND

ON THE VARIOUS OPTIONS. ONLY IN THAT WAY CAN WE HOPE FOR QUICK

ACTION ONCE A SLIDE BEGINS, SUCH REFLECTION WILL REQUIRE TIME.

I DO NOT RATE THE CHANCES OF SUCCEEDING IN THIS AIM HIGH, BUT

WE MUST TRY.

5. PARA 6, FINAL SENTENCE. BY THE SAME TOKEN I DO NOT SEE HOW WE CAN AVOID SOME PRESSURE. THE ALTERNATIVE, TO ACCEPT THE CHINESE

PACE, AMOUNTS TO ACQUIESCENCE IN A SCENARIO IN WHICH SWIFT ACTION TO STEM A COLLAPSE OF CONFIDENCE WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE. MOREOVER,

WE HAVE THE PRIME MINISTER'S LIKELY VISIT. SHE WILL BE BOUND

TO RAISE THE ISSUE IF WE ARE TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY AND THE

TIMING OF HER VISIT MUST DICTATE THE TIMING OF PREPARATION WITH

THE CHINESE.

6. PARA 7(A) FINAL SENTENCE. IT IS TOO EARLY NOW TO GO INTO

MODALITIES, BUT THE PRESENCE OF A SPECIAL EMISSARY IN PEKING

FOR WHAT COULD BE PROTRACTED TALKS COULD HARDLY BE KEPT A

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