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RECEIVELIN SEG STRY NO. 51 29 OCT 1981
DESK OFFICER
FM PEKING 230840Z OCT 81
TO PRIORITY FCO
TELEGRAM NUMBER 644 OF 23 OCTOBER
INFO PRIORITY HONG KONG (PERSONAL FOR GOVERNOR)
FOR DONALD AUS
INDEX
مین
GOVERNOR'S LETTER OF 8 OCTOBER (RECEIVED HERE 21 OCTOBER):
FUTURE OF HONG KONG
1. 1 AGREE WITH THE DETAILED COMMENTS ON THE DRAFT PAPER,
PA
REGISTRY Action Taken
611
Pab911
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2. AS REGARDS THE SUMMARY, I HOPE IT WILL REMAIN A SUMMARY AND
WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO INCORPORATE MATERIAL NOT INCLUDED IN THE
MAIN PAPER AND ON WHICH WE ARE NOT YET ALL AGREED E.G.
TACTICS ON THE PRIME MINISTER'S VISIT. TO EXPAND IT IN THIS WAY
WOULD DELAY SUBMISSION TO MINISTERS. AS I SEE IT, IT IS
IMPORTANT THAT THEY SHOULD BE ACQUAINTED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
WITH THE UNDERLYING ISSUE AND WITH THE MAIN MESSAGE OF THE
PAPER, NAMELY THAT ANY SOLUTION WITH A CHANCE OF CHINESE
ACCEPTANCE IS LIKELY TO INVOLVE SURRENDER OF SOVEREIGNTY-
3. THE TACTICAL QUESTION NEEDS SEPARATE CONSIDERATION. I HAVE
NO DIFFICULTY WITH PARAS 1 4 OF THE GOVERNOR'S DRAFT. ON
<
PARAS 5 9 I HAVE THE FOLLOWING COMMENTS.
4. PARA 6. SINCE, AS THE DRAFT STATES, A COLLAPSE OF CONFIDENCE COULD COME SUDDENLY AND BE VERY DIFFICULT TO REVERSE, IT WOULD
NOT BE ENOUGH MERELY TO MAKE THE CHINESE AWARE OF THE
EXISTENCE OF THE PROBLEM. WE SHOULD TRY TO PERSUADE THEM TO MAKE CONTINGENCY ARRANGEMENTS AND EVEN TO REFLECT BEFOREHAND
ON THE VARIOUS OPTIONS. ONLY IN THAT WAY CAN WE HOPE FOR QUICK
ACTION ONCE A SLIDE BEGINS, SUCH REFLECTION WILL REQUIRE TIME.
I DO NOT RATE THE CHANCES OF SUCCEEDING IN THIS AIM HIGH, BUT
WE MUST TRY.
5. PARA 6, FINAL SENTENCE. BY THE SAME TOKEN I DO NOT SEE HOW WE CAN AVOID SOME PRESSURE. THE ALTERNATIVE, TO ACCEPT THE CHINESE
PACE, AMOUNTS TO ACQUIESCENCE IN A SCENARIO IN WHICH SWIFT ACTION TO STEM A COLLAPSE OF CONFIDENCE WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE. MOREOVER,
WE HAVE THE PRIME MINISTER'S LIKELY VISIT. SHE WILL BE BOUND
TO RAISE THE ISSUE IF WE ARE TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY AND THE
TIMING OF HER VISIT MUST DICTATE THE TIMING OF PREPARATION WITH
THE CHINESE.
6. PARA 7(A) FINAL SENTENCE. IT IS TOO EARLY NOW TO GO INTO
MODALITIES, BUT THE PRESENCE OF A SPECIAL EMISSARY IN PEKING
FOR WHAT COULD BE PROTRACTED TALKS COULD HARDLY BE KEPT A
SECRET.
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