TNAG-0981-FCO40-1200-Immigration-from-China-to-Hong-Kong-1980 — Page 85

CONFIDENTIAL

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will maintain their increased deployments on anti-escape duties, and if there is

any relaxation (real or rumoured) in these measures, illegal emigration will

certainly increase once more. In the meantime, as long as the land border remains

tightly controlled, IIs are likely to continue to try to enter Hong Kong across the

Bays.

7.

The new anti-escapo measures have, as expected, had less effect on

those escaping by sea than on land and bay crossers; the bulk of the Chinese

anti-escape. effort is in Shenzhen Municipality, although there has been some

increased activity in the coastal areas and increased patrol boat activity at

sea. It is probable that sea escapes will continue on days when the weather is

favourable, at least until the monsoon changes in March/April.

These escapes

are likely to become more organised by syndicates in China, as the casual escape

attempt is now faced with more obstacles, including a shortage of boats,

stricter controls on their use and stepped-up patrol boat activity, The change in the monsoon is likely to bring about a change in the direction of the

main flow, when it will then become more difficult for sailing vessels from

the North Fast and the Pearl River to get to Hong Kong and motorised vessels

are less available for escape purposes. The main threat could then switch

to sailing vessels from West of the Pearl River and the South West.

LIC HONG KONG

FEBRUARY 1980

CONFIDENTIAL

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