CONFIDENTIAL
Page No. 4 of 4 pages
will maintain their increased deployments on anti-escape duties, and if there is
any relaxation (real or rumoured) in these measures, illegal emigration will
certainly increase once more. In the meantime, as long as the land border remains
tightly controlled, IIs are likely to continue to try to enter Hong Kong across the
Bays.
7.
The new anti-escapo measures have, as expected, had less effect on
those escaping by sea than on land and bay crossers; the bulk of the Chinese
anti-escape. effort is in Shenzhen Municipality, although there has been some
increased activity in the coastal areas and increased patrol boat activity at
sea. It is probable that sea escapes will continue on days when the weather is
favourable, at least until the monsoon changes in March/April.
These escapes
are likely to become more organised by syndicates in China, as the casual escape
attempt is now faced with more obstacles, including a shortage of boats,
stricter controls on their use and stepped-up patrol boat activity, The change in the monsoon is likely to bring about a change in the direction of the
main flow, when it will then become more difficult for sailing vessels from
the North Fast and the Pearl River to get to Hong Kong and motorised vessels
are less available for escape purposes. The main threat could then switch
to sailing vessels from West of the Pearl River and the South West.
LIC HONG KONG
FEBRUARY 1980
CONFIDENTIAL
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