TNAG-0957-FCO40-1176-The-Kowloon-Canton-Railway-1980 — Page 18

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CONFIDENTIAL #

2

Assumptions

The following assumptions have been made. in preparing the

table at Annex C :-

•

+

(a) Passenger Service Revenue

(i) 1979-80

An overall growth of approximately 20%

of which traffic to and from China via Lo Wu is

the dominant factor.

Passenger traffic on the through train

service; of 600 passengers per day each way.

(ii) 1980-81.

An overall growth of 5% in internal

passenger traffic and an additional through

train service. Growth in this year will be

:

strictly limited due to the constraints on the

existing service which cannot be further

improved prior to modernisation.

(iii) 1981-82

Following completion of the Beacon Hill

Tunnel in April 1981 and a full double-track from

Kowloon to Sha Tin, additional capacity will

become available on this section of line and growth

of 30% in passenger traffic is predicted.

(b) Freight Traffic Revenue

A growth of 15% in 1979-80, and 10% in 1980-81

and 1981-82. There is a limit at present to the freight

which can be handled on the line and at terminals. This

will become a constraint in about 1980-81.

/ (c)

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