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Annex II
Proposal for the second stage study
This proposal has been prepared by British Petroleum. It is intended to build on the findings of the first stage study and put the Government in the position to decide whether or not to proceed to a fullscale feasibility study.
2.
The areas to be covered and the proposed allocation of the work are as follows:
(a)
(b)
(c)
(a)
(e)
Present CIF import values of Hong Kong's oil product imports will be determined over the period of recent history sufficient to allow inspection of any trends. This will give a more accurate basis for forecasting required import parity values for product at the refinery gate and accordingly improving the basis for tentative economics. (Hong Kong Government)
Assumptions will be adopted, if possible, about export markets into which product surpluses from a Hong Kong refinery might be sold - location (probably Japan, China), export volumes to be planned for, market values to assume for product exports, any other relevant business factors (e.g. tarriff policies, etc.) (BP)
Demand forecasts (including naptha consumption in Hong Kong) assumed in the first stage report will be re-considered to determine whether the accuracy of assumptions can be refined at this stage, with particular reference to fuel oil substitution by coal. (Hong Kong Government/ BP)
More detailed assay data on the quality of present export grades of Chinese crude will be sought. (BP)
A preliminary position paper will be prepared on the prospects for the supply/demand plans equation in basic distillation capacity in the S.E. Asian and Far East regions. (BP)
(f) Hong Kong Government will attempt a definition
and quantification of the strategic/security considerations that may have impact on, and modify purely economic appraisals of the
project.
(Hong Kong Government)
/ (g) BP will
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