TNAG-0946-FCO40-1165-Local-Intelligence-Committee-assessment-of-the-political-sit-1980 — Page 23

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Page No. 8 of 10 pages

of deterrence in the present (often diminishing) level of punishment;

an absence of zeal on the part of cadres; the end of the harvest; unpopular

birth control policies, and, above all, the lure of Hong Kong affluence

for people living at a far lower standard who are increasingly tempted to

try their luck by the success of so many others. An additional factor

in August seems to have been the fear that the formal establishment of the

Special Economic Zone in Shenzhen on 1 September would make it more

difficult to escape since entry to the Zone from the rest of Guangdong would

be closely controlled. Whether this fear will prove justified remains to

be seen but it is typical of the many assumptions, linked to particular

dates, that have triggered off sudden surges over the last 18 months.

However, there are indications that the establishment of the Zone will

result in the redeployment of CCA units to the north of the Zone while

security within it will be maintained by a specially formed People's Police

unit and Militia (see also para 7).

32.

Of the illegal immigrants arrested, 8,342 came overland or across

the Bays.

They were caught mainly at the western end of the land border,

despite the reported deployment of additional CCA troops, People's Police

and Militia in the area. There have been numerous reports that, further

away from the border, CCA units previously stationed there have been thinned

out or moved away altogether. Whether this is only a temporary withdrawal

for exercises or for some other reason is not known,

33.

4,344 of the arrested illegal immigrants had arrived in boats.

There seems to have been a renewed outbreak of the escape fever in counties

on the western bank of the Pearl River Estuary, while fishermen from

counties to the east have apparently seized opportunities to escape,

implementing plans deferred by the harvest and taking advantage of recent

temporarily favourable winds and the scarcity of Chinese patrol craft.

It is also possible that an anti-smuggling campaign which had been in

progress in north-east waters has lost momentum. The readiness of the

Chinese Security Forces in Mirs Bay to take drastic action against marine

syndicates was demonstrated by another incident in which suspected traffickers

in a speedboat were fired upon near the shore. One wounded man reached Hong

Kong and from what he and the Chinese said it seems that one of his

accomplices was killed and the other wounded.

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/ para 34.