TNAG-0943-FCO40-1162-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1980 — Page 4

While, however, it is fairly clear that the intensive development of Tin Shui Wai could be planned so as to fit in with the general development of the area, the overall effects of intensive development right up to Deep Bay, and the stimulus which this would give to other development in this part of the New Territories, has to be seen against the background both of the recent influx of illegal immigrants and also of the growing urbanisation of the Chinese side of the border area. There is little doubt that more. intensive development on the New Territories side will increase the security problems arising from illegal immigration, but the greater problem is likely to arise from urbanisation in China right across the border, which will establish a forward base for illegal immigrations. However, the development of Tin Shui Wai raises no problems which are not already raised by the further development of Yuen Long and Sheung Shui/Fanling.

14

་

What is perhaps more important than the security problem is the call which would be made on Hong Kong's economic resources by development in these areas in the mid-eighties, at a time when such resources are likely to be fairly fully extended in the development of Junk Bay, Sha Tin Extensions and, particularly if it is decided to build a fixed crossing to North Lantau and develop North Lantau, and this would apply with much greater force if a decision to build a new airport at Chek Lap Kok was also taken. However, experience has shown that the development of these areas is likely to be drawn out over a long period. As pointed out in paragraph 10 above, the engineering study of the North West New Territories is only now about to start, and similar consultant's studies for the North East New Territories are only expected to begin in the next financial year. It is therefore at least three years before a decision to commence major land production in either of these areas is likely to be made, by which time it is expected that a decision on whether or not to proceed with an airport will already have been made. It will thus be possible to assess the acceptibility of the calls on resources involved in a general major development of the North West New Territories against the background of the Government's other development plans (e.g. Shatin, Junk Bay, and North Lantau) before a decision is made on the extent and the rate of development.

G.S. 166

CONFIDENTIAL # #