TNAG-0937-FCO40-1156-Visits-of-Sir-Murray-MacLehose--Governor-of-Hong-Kong--to-th-1980 — Page 237

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not interested in elections; the fact that fewer than 3% of those

eligible bothered to vote in the latest Urban Council election is

seen as strong evidence of this.

The Special Position of Hong Kong

8. The Governor's case is a strong one. Its most telling point

lies in the special circumstances of Hong Kong's relationship with

China and the risk of a Chinese reaction if Peking believed that a

major change in the administration of the territory was likely.

It is difficult to assess the degree of this danger in relation to

any particular move. The proponents of reform maintain that the

Chinese would not in fact object to an extension of the electoral

system, partly because Chinese officials who have been questioned

on the subject have returned bland and evasive answers. This

misunderstands the Chinese position. In practice much would

probably depend on the level at which changes were made; while

we need to err on the side of prudence in judging whether experiments

would provoke an unacceptable response, some steps could probably

be taken if it were clear that they were not going to start a

slide towards unacceptable change.

The Legislative Council

9. There it little doubt that any move towards even partial

elections to the Legislative Council would be too risky. It would

recall to the Chinese analogous developments in other dependent

territories, almost all of which have led to independence. It

would probably lead on to demands for corresponding changes in

the Executive Council, perhaps to calls for ministerial government

based on the majority. Even though the Chinese have so far

tolerated some moves of this sort in Macao it is unlikely that they

/could

CONFIDENTIAL