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8
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CONFIDENTIAL
Council.
3.
Providing oil exports and revenues hold up both these groups may be able to buy off in the short term public discontent arising from the severe outstanding economic and political problems.
But the underlying confusion, economic depression, and political rivalries may work to the advantage of populist groups mainly of the left, and less favourable to
the Islamic establishment. Delays have occurred in promulgating
Regional autonomy movements simmer,
the draft constitution.
especially among the Kurds and Arabs.
8.
Khomeini wants effective security forces but units are far fro full strength and the army would be unable at present to cope with widespread disorder.
UNCIAD V and Aid
--
9. UNCTAD V (Manila, 7 May to 1 June) will review all the economic issues between developed and developing countries. The Japanese Prime Minister, Mr Ohira, accompanied by Mr Sonoda, addressed the Conference on 13 May. Developing countries were disappointed that he did not announce any further increase in Japanese assistance. He confirmed that Japan would double her ODA in dollar terms in 3 years. This will at best only represent a small increase as a proportion of GNP. Japanese aid is below the average for the OECD major
donors (members of DAC) as
is that of West Germany and the US.
1977
%
Japan
0.21
West Germany
0.27
Us
0.22
UK
DAC average
0.37 (0.39% in 1978)
0.31
CONFIDENT AL
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