CONFIDENCE
ADMIN IN
-2-
5.
As regards future numbers, I am confident that the requirement for DS officers in the Dependent Territories will not increase significantly. The paper by Mr Stewart mentioned in paragraph 3 of your minute merely argued that we should have to reckon on filling a higher proportion of senior administrative posts in the Dependent Territories from the Diplomatic Service, as the supply of ex-HMOCS staff dried up. The paper made no attempt to forecast how many posts would actually remain, beyond assuming that there would be 20 posts in 1980. In fact the number will go steadily downwards as more territories move to independence. Mr Stewart may also have underestimated the number of HMOCS staff who will still be available in the early 1980s. I have not attempted a detailed recalculation, but a quick estimate suggests that by this time next year there will be around 16 senior posts in the Dependent Territories (outside Hong Kong) for which expatriates will be needed, but that no more than a third of them will need to be filled by DS officers. By 1985, the total could have dropped to about 10, with perhaps a half to two-thirds from the Diplomatic Service. I have not attempted to guess how many DS staff will be needed to fill posts at the clerical and executive levels, but it seems likely that here too the requirement will not increase much, if at all.
6. If there is to be a meeting to discuss this, I should be happy to have HKGD represented. I suggest that WIAD, as the principal geographical department concerned with Dependent Territories might also wish to be included - and possibly also SPD, though their interest will have disappeared after the New Hebrides become independent next year.
2 July 1979
сс
Mr Hunter, PSD Mr Unwin, PPD
R JT McLaren
Hong Kong and General Department
ADMIN IN CONFIDENCE
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