4. Opportunities beyond Form III
4.1
The targets of places for those continuing their education beyond Form III, as well as the targets of places for those continuing their education beyond the later stages of school education, are defined in relation to the population in the relevant age groups. The 15, 17 and 19 year old populations are the median populations completing Form III, Form V and Form VI respectively. The planning of further educational opportunities beyond each of these levels must take account of the substantial decline in these populations that will occur over the next decade, as shown in the table below.
Projected population in selected age groups 1977-1986
(mid-year estimate)
Age
Year
15
17
19
1977
112,610
113,930
107,860
1981
93,650
105, 350
110,490
1986
74,500
79,160
87,060
% decline
33.8
30.5
1977-86
19.3
Note: The above set of projections has been compiled
by the Census & Statistics Department. The projections cover survivors of the relevant age cohorts based on the medium assumption about future death rates. No assumptions about future birth rates are needed, as all in these populations are already born. The assumption about the level of legal migration is the same as that of the medium population projection, i.e. nil balance of immigrants and emigrants, but excluding illegal immigration.
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