5.
(contd)
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in contrast to earlier ad hoc programmes, the LRP is based on an open-ended commitment endorsed by President Carter to solve the Indo-China refugee problem. However, he agreed that the implementation arrangements from 14 June 1978 to 30 April 1979 would mean a significant reduction in the proportion of outstanding cases who could be resettled in the US. Within this period a total of 25,000 places are to be shared equally between land and boat cases. For the latter, 1,500 places are to be reserved initially for refugees rescued by U S-flag or US-owned vessels. This leaves 11,000 places and at 30 June, according to the UNHCR office in Kuala Lumpur, there were already 17,954 boat refugees awaiting resettlement throughout the region (this figure does not include the 200-odd cases in Taiwan which are not handled by U NHCR). Even with the Australian programme for 9,000 Indo-Chinese refugees in 1978-79 (not all of whom will be boat cases) and continuing French willingness to take large numbers of refugees, the overall prospect is of resettlement falling increasingly behind the current outflow of refugees.
6.
Under the LRP priority in resettlement will be decided on the basis of 4 categories (details at Annex II) and places will be assigned in monthly batches (1,545 in June and 905 for subsequent months), according to reports received from U S posts of numbers in each category irrespective of the total numbers awaiting resettlement in each country. However, once all outstanding cases in categories 1 to 3 have been dealt with, priority in assigning numbers under category 4 (humanitarian cases with no U S connections) will go to Malaysia in order to minimise the danger of boat refugees being refused permission to land.
Effect on Hong Kong
7.
It is not yet clear precisely how Hong Kong will fare under the programme, since so far the Americans have only been able to assign places to those in categories 1 and 2 and some in category 3. It may be some months before they can start to tackle category 4, which includes the great majority of cases. Furthermore, Congress has still to vote funds to implement the LRP and until this is done (possibly not until September if there are long hearings), there will be no onward movement of those given places under it. However, the higher proportion of ethnic Chinese amongst recent arrivals may mean that we have proportionately more category 4 cases. This will slow down the outflow to the US even further. In 1977 we had 1,001 arrivals and 909 left for the U S; the corresponding figures this year to
18 July are 1,979 and 610.
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