AMP
A NEW AIRPORT
The brief of the investigation directed the Consultants to search for replacement airport sites, a task performed in parallel with the forecasts and studies of Kai Tak. A long list of 13 sites that could conceivably support one or more runways was developed. Sites with single-runway potential were named on the initial premise that a supplemental airport might be built, retaining Kai Tak as one of a two-airport system.
An initial short listing of sites rejected 7 of the 13 because of airspace constraints or insufficient development potential. The two-airport concept was abandoned early in the study as nonviable, eliminating the single-runway options. The six surviving sites were examined in sufficient detail to justify a further short listing. However, only one site offered sufficient promise to warrant additional study.
On advice of the Steering Group, a site off the north coast of Lantau Island was selected for purposes of investigating alternative policies with regard to the forecast shortfalls in air transport capacity. The site is partially on an island identified by the Consultants as Chek Lap Kok, frequently referred to in the media as Chu Lu Kok. The former term is used here to describe the potential second airport for Hong Kong.
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF DEMAND CONSTRAINTS
Whether the demand for air services is not served through failure to provide adequate facilities or through application of artificial restraints, there will be a degree of economic penalty to Hong Kong. The Consultants investigated this aspect of the problem in some detail. Because of virtually no precedent for such investigation, it was based on two very conservative assumptions: (1) one-fourth of all visitor air passengers denied air transport will find another way to reach Hong Kong, and (2) the present value of a future expenditure of income will reflect a 10% discount rate.
The analysis is quite detailed, and the interested reader is invited to examine the summary in the final report as well as the comprehensive technical paper. Based on the conservative assumptions, the present value (in 1975) of loss to the GDP by 1995 if Kai Tak is the sole airport serving Hong Kong is estimated at HK $8,128 million (1973 dollars). Using somewhat less conservative assumptions, the present loss value is on the order of HK $24,000 million by 1995. These figures are also based on the most probable forecasts of air services demand. If the low forecast range is used instead, the loss will be considerably less but still very significant. Losses computed for the high range of demand are astronomical.
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