TNAG-0775-FCO40-979-Possible-new-airport-for-Hong-Kong-1978 — Page 35

-RMP

GROUND TRANSPORT

The demand forecasts were translated into forecasts of ground transport activity associated with Kai Tak. The forecast effort involved projections of total airport population and vehicle usage. Results of the study yielded a demand for more than 82,000 persons entering Kai Tak in 1980 — equivalent to 36,800 passenger car units. During peak airport hours, some 5,500 passenger car units will enter Kai Tak. Peak highway hours will see 3,600 passenger car units entering the airport. If the capacity were adequate, by 1990, persons entering Kai Tak on the design day would increase to more than 175,000.

RESTRAINTS

Intervening in the processes that cause demand for air services to be generated is possible, and a wide variety of restraint mechanisms have been investigated: Four have reasonable prospects of effectiveness, and all of these present some deleterious side effects. A heavy tax on hotel accommodations, either as a flat rate or on the first night of occupancy, appears to offer the least number of objectionable features. More than one mechanism may be required, and embarking on a course of action that implies continuing restraint policies may lead to the necessity of a visa quota system, with possibilities of retaliation.

THE CONTRIBUTION OF AIR TRANSPORT

To evaluate the several policy options available for the future air transport system, the role of the airport in the economic life of Hong Kong must be understood. The Consultants undertook a comprehensive analysis, beginning with estimates of GDP and GDP per capita through 1995. The direct contribution of the air transport system in value added to the GDP in 1971 was estimated at HK $747 million, or 3.8%. In addition, 66,000 full-time jobs were created (about 4% of the labor force) and the notional differences between sea and air carriage costs totaled HK $567 million; this equals 2.9% of GDP. Thus, the true total direct contribution is 6.7% of GDP.

A study of alternatives must also consider options where demand is not accommodated. A series of forecasts of the tourism contribution to the GDP was made as an aid in evaluating these options. The tourist expenditure contribution to GDP is expected to experience dynamic growth from the 1972 level of 5.3% to 12.3% in 1985 and to 15.7% in 1995.

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