As additional insight into validity of the visitor forecasts, the requirement for visitor accommodations and associated construction was estimated. Although the total number of hotel beds required by 1995 represents more than seven times the 1972 availability, hotel construction is estimated at no more than 3% to 4% of total construction during the period.
The projected relationship between hotel beds and population yields another interesting statistical comparison. In 1972 there were nearly five hotel beds per 1,000 population in Hong Kong; the visitor forecasts would increase this ratio to 22.6 in 1995. This is only one-half the ratio in Switzerland, a country whose 1969 population and GNP per capita are comparable to those forecast for Hong Kong in 1995. The United States and Italy currently exceed this ratio, and Japan approaches it.
Thus, the Consultants consider the forecasts of unconstrained demand to be reasonable long-term indicators of actual traffic, if adequate airport facilities are available. Unless intervention occurs or world stability is threatened, the air passenger traffic demand should fall within the range forecast.
AIR VEHICLES AND FUTURE TECHNOLOGY
The passenger and cargo movement demand forecasts must be converted into operations forecasts for airport evaluation and forward planning (an aircraft operation is a takeoff or a landing). Operations consist mainly of scheduled passenger aircraft operations, but also include operations by nonscheduled or charter passenger aircraft, freighter, and occasional nonrevenue flights.
A literature search was conducted to project the impact of future technology on the composition of the Hong Kong fleet during the 1975-1995 forecast period. The quantum increases in aircraft size are not expected to continue. Instead, the more productive wide-bodied jets will dominate the regional market. These aircraft are operationally and economically better suited for accommodating the rapidly growing Far East air passenger demand in terms of lower seat-mile operating costs and applicability to the longer flight distances characteristic of the region. Larger aircraft are expected in charter and freighter service toward the end of the period.
Forecasts of aircraft operational volumes and other traffic characteristics are shown in Figure 5. The dominance of scheduled passenger aircraft is expected to continue. Because schedules at Hong Kong are controlled largely by the relatively long flight stages to Japan and Thailand and the availability of daylight hour services at these origin/destination points, the afternoon hours will remain the busiest part of the day. The Standard Busy Rate, a measure of the peaking characteristics of demand, will grow from its present level of 20 to 25 operations per hour to more than 100 in the 1990s.
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