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(4) Analysis of restraints; study of the means to slow or stop the growth in demand through government intervention; probable effectiveness and consequences.
(5) Evaluation of system contribution; study of the value of air services to Hong Kong and the contribution to the Hong Kong economy by those using the air transport system, directly and indirectly.
THE DEMAND FOR AIR SERVICES
Figure 1 illustrates Hong Kong's position on the most heavily traveled air routes in Asia. Thirty airlines operate 950 weekly passenger flights and 70 weekly cargo flights to 64 cities throughout the world.
Growth rates for international air travel have considerably exceeded growth in GDP. In recent years, the Far East has experienced a higher growth in travel than the world average. From 1961 to 1971, world air travel increased 12.5% per year. Air travel in the Far East during this period increased 18% per year. Hong Kong is a favored destination, and tourism continues to contribute to the receipt of foreign exchange, to employment, and to the GDP. Spending by foreign visitors amounted to more than 9% of the value of Hong Kong's total export of goods and services and represented more than 75% of the total value of services "exported," such as banking and insurance. Between 1966 and 1972 such expenditures were growing at an average rate of 20% a year, while GDP was growing at a rate of 13% (in current dollars). The contribution of the tourist industry to the Hong Kong economy is expected to experience dynamic growth in the future - from 5.3% of GDP in 1972, to 12.3% in 1985, and to 15.7% in 1995.
Government policy has been to provide for the demand for air transport services on a self-supporting basis. The result has been a continuous average annual passenger growth of 19% during the past 20 years. The work covered in Book 3 resulted in forecast growth rates of 18.2% for 1974 and 1975, 12.6% for 1975 to 1985, and 7.9% for 1985 to 1995. The reasons for this declining trend are many, but may be summed up as a maturation of the tourism/air travel market. Note that these are forecasts of the demand for air services, not yet constrained by short- falls in the supply of services or facilities.
The detailed analysis producing the forecasts is available in the technical papers, but may be briefly summarized as a study of the passenger history for each country originating 5,000 or more visitors to Hong Kong in 1972. Separate forecasts of visitors were prepared for each of the 19 countries, using correlations of visitors with population and GNP per capita for each country. Adjustments were applied for the proportion of sea visitors and minor data deficiencies; Hong Kong resident travel was forecast independently. The sum of these passenger
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