TNAG-0770-FCO40-974-Construction-of-underground-railway-system-in-Hong-Kong-1978 — Page 137

3.19

The evaluation of the Island Line and of the LRT systems

when they offer high levels of service at higher fare

levels than today rely on an assessment of how users

will view new systems. This is difficult in any context but particularly difficult in Hong Kong because no equivalent system exists today. There is some merit therefore in the argument that before a further substantial commitment

is made to public transport infra-structure the opportunity

should be taken to monitor and review the use of the MIS. Equally the converse of the argument has merit that the physical opportunity to build a high performance system

should not be lost until the effect of MIS can be assessed.

3.20

3.21

3.22

Growth in income results in an increased propensity for

travel and the CTS assumptions on income growth, together with other demand parameters, result in the 56 percent

growth in travel demand referred to earlier. However, a

reduction in the income growth could reduce the total

demand for travel. Economic forecasts are notoriously

difficult, and with Hong Kong's economy so dependent on external forces, it must be concluded that 15-year forecasts

of household income are subject to considerable variation.

There must be some uncertainty, therefore, about the levels

of future demand and the attractiveness of high performance

but high cost modes. Unless the population, employment

and the economy grow at rates very different on those assumed, the Study Team consider the total public transport

demand figures used in the analysis to be appropriate.

Nevertheless it is important to note the uncertainty associated

with the individual components of the ICS demand forecast.

In these circumstances there must be higher risk associated with schemes requiring large capital investment in infra- structure such as Options B and C as originally specified than with Option A. The Government must obviously weigh

the element of risk involved against the equally important

need to ensure that reasonably adequate provision is made for future growth in demand beyond that which can be measured

today..

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