TNAG-0757-FCO40-961-Strength-of-UK-armed-forces-stationed-in-Hong-Kong-1978 — Page 22

SECRET

ANNEX A Lo

DP 17778) (Preliminary Deact (Cortinued)

commitment and by guaranteeing UK participation in CENTO air,

naval and ground force exercises. Neither of these methods of

increasing the UK military contribution are possible without

adjustment of the shape, size and employment of the Air Transport

Force.

The Caribbean

21.

In the Commonwealth Caribbean HMG is responsible for law and

order in the Dependencies (and Anguilla). In the Associated

States IMG retains responsibility for defence and external affairs

only, but circumstances could still arise in which limited inter-

vention for the protection or possible evacuation of British

citizens could be required. The UK has no formal defence oblige-

tions towards the independent Commonwealth countries. The region

is inherently unstable.

22. No threat of external aggression (other than to Belize) is

likely to arise over the next five years. However the current

JIC Assessment (14) is that the threat to internal security in

the Commonwealth Caribbean is increasing. The most likely form

of disorder continues to be mob violence following come trivial

incident. The local forces of law and order are unlikely to be

able to deal with more than minor disturbances and it is unlikely

that the security forces of one territory will be made available

to help those in another. Since the withdrawal in 1976 of Senior

Naval Officer West Indies (SNOWI) and of the two frigates and

facilities under his command, the only British forces located in

Note:

14. JIC(77)4.

A 14 SECRET