SECRET
ANNEX A Lo
DP 17778) (Preliminary Deact (Cortinued)
commitment and by guaranteeing UK participation in CENTO air,
naval and ground force exercises. Neither of these methods of
increasing the UK military contribution are possible without
adjustment of the shape, size and employment of the Air Transport
Force.
The Caribbean
21.
In the Commonwealth Caribbean HMG is responsible for law and
order in the Dependencies (and Anguilla). In the Associated
States IMG retains responsibility for defence and external affairs
only, but circumstances could still arise in which limited inter-
vention for the protection or possible evacuation of British
citizens could be required. The UK has no formal defence oblige-
tions towards the independent Commonwealth countries. The region
is inherently unstable.
22. No threat of external aggression (other than to Belize) is
likely to arise over the next five years. However the current
JIC Assessment (14) is that the threat to internal security in
the Commonwealth Caribbean is increasing. The most likely form
of disorder continues to be mob violence following come trivial
incident. The local forces of law and order are unlikely to be
able to deal with more than minor disturbances and it is unlikely
that the security forces of one territory will be made available
to help those in another. Since the withdrawal in 1976 of Senior
Naval Officer West Indies (SNOWI) and of the two frigates and
facilities under his command, the only British forces located in
Note:
14. JIC(77)4.
A 14 SECRET