DSR 11C
CONFIDENTIAL
almost inevitable that so large a country as China with
an ideology alien to most of her neighbours, and indeed
to the West as a whole, would, as her military capability
increased, be seen by them as a growing threat. They would
see a need to protect themselves. So long as Japan,
South Korea and Taiwan can confidently rely on the United
States, they will feel uneasy but not over-alarmed by
To the extent that the US
China's military development.
commitment to their defence is in doubt and over the
apda
they will
Taiwan and
next twenty years it may increasingly be so
seek alternative arrangements if they can.
South Korea are already building up their military
capacities. Japan, however, might in the last resort be
forced into a considerable increase in defence expenditure
and military capability and the development of Japan as a
regional power. Although this might well provoke some
reaction in the region, and perhaps in the West, it
would be stabilising if Japan's fundamental political and
economic links with the West were maintained. China's
increasing strength would also tend to increase Soviet
influence among China's other neighbours, particularly
India.
44. part from these major considerations, we must accept
that the general direction of China's development will be
little affected in the long run by whether the West sells
her the limited quantities of military equipment and
technology she is likely to require.
All that will be
affected will be the speed with which she is able to
improve her capability in the weapons systems involved.
For such systems, any purchases which the Chinese are
likely to make will make a difference of not more than about ten years between what they could do without and
ANALNO TESTEN KASUTATA JE
D) 107921 400.000 7/16 901973
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