DSR 11C
CONFIDENTIAL
(e) With the Sino-Soviet dispute almost certain to
continue, although perhaps in a somewhat milder form,
China will wish to avoid trouble on her other
frontiers, although she will not relinquish her
claims. In any case, unlike the Soviet Union, China
has not in recent centuries been an expansionist
power, although she has a clear perception of what
her territory should be - for example it includes
Tibet, Taiwan and Hong Kong and the islands in the
South China Sea which are also claimed by other
countries, a potential source of conflict.
But there
To
is no reason to suppose that she has any territorial
ambitions beyond the frontiers she regards as her own,
even though for reasons of security she is interested
in exerting influence over neighbouring countries.
behave as an aggressor would also be inconsistent with
avowed Chinese policy. As far as Hong Kong and Taiwan
are concerned, the former is already military indefen-
sible. The latter would indeed be threatened
militarily by Peking acquiring a capacity to invade
the island. This would be a factor to consider when
examining particular potential arms sales.
43. I could however also be argued that as China becomes
stronger and feels less vulnerable militarily
both in
conventional terms and with the development of her strategic
nuclear capability
**
her greater self-confidence vis-à-vis
the Soviet Union could lead her to attach less importance
to good relations with the West or to stability in Asia,
and more to propagating her own ideology.
Moreover, it is
/almost
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