CONFIDENTIAL
DSR 11C
leadership of Taiwan which would restore effective
sovereignty over the island to Peking. In the meantime,
the issue will continue to frustrate much closer ties
between the United States and China. The issue could
be particularly awkward if Peking believed that Taiwan
was acquiring nuclear weapons. (Although the latter
has demonstrated that she has the desire to manufacture
a nuclear device, she is unlikely to acquire the
capability to do so within the next ten years.)
would wish to act to forestall this development if there
was a fair chance of success. Neither eventuality would
be in the Western interest. Equally, any move by the
West which enhanced Taiwan's political status would be
strongly resented in Peking.
China
(g) North-East and South-East Asia
15. China has vital interests in the countries bordering
her to the south and east. Historically, the Chinese
aim has been to turn them into weak vassal states.
The most likely area for conflict is the Korean Peninsula,
where Kim Il-Sung may try to overrun South Korea while
North Korea retains its present military advantage.
This would face the United States with a difficult choice
between fighting or abandoning Korea, and Japan with the
need to consider whether her present cautious defence
policies should be changed, while China would be able to
offer extensive support to North Korea only at the risk of
jeopardising relations with Japan and the United States.
/16.
CONFIDENTIAL
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