TNAG-0691-FCO40-840-Review-of-narcotics-problem-in-Hong-Kong-1977 — Page 61

G.F. 323

CONFIDENTIAL

機密

PREDICTION OF PENAL POPULATION

Para. 6

The prediction of penal populations is a difficult task.

ANNEX 'A'

2.

In the latter half of 1974, (when in retrospect it can be seen

that the increase in prison population was unusually sharp), a forecast

was made that by 1981/82 there might be a total of 23, 800 persons in

penal institutions. In the event, this forecast is unlikely to be justified

in view of the actual number of inmates accommodated in institutions

at 30th June 1977 (average daily muster was 7, 818).

3.

A further estimate has therefore been made by the Prisons

Department based on a number of factors including, penal population

statistics over the past twenty eight years (see Table 2), sentencing

patterns, and distribution of convicted persons by categories of offences

over the past five years, and the prosecution and remand ratio, and

length of remand also over five years. This has produced the predictions

in Table 1.

CONFIDENTIAL

機密