G.F. 323
CONFIDENTIAL
機密
PREDICTION OF PENAL POPULATION
Para. 6
The prediction of penal populations is a difficult task.
ANNEX 'A'
2.
In the latter half of 1974, (when in retrospect it can be seen
that the increase in prison population was unusually sharp), a forecast
was made that by 1981/82 there might be a total of 23, 800 persons in
penal institutions. In the event, this forecast is unlikely to be justified
in view of the actual number of inmates accommodated in institutions
at 30th June 1977 (average daily muster was 7, 818).
3.
A further estimate has therefore been made by the Prisons
Department based on a number of factors including, penal population
statistics over the past twenty eight years (see Table 2), sentencing
patterns, and distribution of convicted persons by categories of offences
over the past five years, and the prosecution and remand ratio, and
length of remand also over five years. This has produced the predictions
in Table 1.
CONFIDENTIAL
機密