TNAG-0630-FCO40-778-Effect-of-GATT-Multi-Fibre-Arrangement-on-Hong-Kong-negotiat-1988 — Page 94

CONFIDENTIAL

A YEAR. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER REASONABLE EXPLANATION, WE

THINK IT IS VALID IN BROAD TERMS TO SAY THAT THE GROWTH OF

DOMESTIC EXPORTS DETERMINES THE GROWTH OF THE GDP. FROM THIS WE

DEDUCE THAT THE SLOWER GROWTH IN DOMESTIC EXPORTS AS A RESULT

OF THE TRAN PROPOSALS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE GROWTH IN

GDP BY THE SAME AMOUNT.

MACLEHOSE

FILES

HKNG D

EID

ECON-D

PS/MR JUDD

PS/LORDGORONWY ROBERTS

MR CORTAZZI

MRMURRAY

COPIES

HONG KONG GOVERNMENT OFFICE

2

CONFIDENTIAL