CONFIDENTIAL
A YEAR. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER REASONABLE EXPLANATION, WE
THINK IT IS VALID IN BROAD TERMS TO SAY THAT THE GROWTH OF
DOMESTIC EXPORTS DETERMINES THE GROWTH OF THE GDP. FROM THIS WE
DEDUCE THAT THE SLOWER GROWTH IN DOMESTIC EXPORTS AS A RESULT
OF THE TRAN PROPOSALS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE GROWTH IN
GDP BY THE SAME AMOUNT.
MACLEHOSE
FILES
HKNG D
EID
ECON-D
PS/MR JUDD
PS/LORDGORONWY ROBERTS
MR CORTAZZI
MRMURRAY
COPIES
HONG KONG GOVERNMENT OFFICE
2
CONFIDENTIAL