TNAG-0539-FCO40-634-Strength-of-garrison-in-Hong-Kong-1975 — Page 16

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL

20. In assessing the threat to Britain's security both military

and political aspects must be considered. In parallel with their

stated commitment to detente the Warsaw Pact countries maintain

forces on the mainland of Europe which are increasing in strength

and capability and appear far larger than could be necessary for

defensive purposes. They are composed, equipped and deployed in a manner which would enable them to undertake offensive operations at relatively short notice. The Soviet Union has vastly expanded

its Navy and can rapidly deploy substantial naval forces across the

maritime lines of communication between Europe and North America.

On the evidence of its national defence policies and its approach

to international negotiations, the intention of the Soviet Union

18 to achieve parity with the West in areas in which it has in the

past been inferior and to maintain superiority wherever it has this already. Chapter II paragraphs 2-9 and figs. 2 and 3 give

some details of the current imbalances of forces between NATO

and the Warsaw Pact. The Government does not believe that the

Warsaw Pact countries would contemplate outright aggression against

the West in present circumstances; but this is a political judge-

ment which neither alters the military facts nor necessarily holds

good for ever.

21.

Détente is not yet irreversible. It is the stated policy of

almost every Government, but it is still far from being permanent

and comprehensive. In common with its Allies, the Government is working to establish a safer, warmer and more constructive relation-

ship with the Soviet Union and its Allies. The recent visit to

the Soviet Union by the Prime Minister and the Foreign and

Commonwealth Secretary has opened the way to progress in this

direction. But until détente is clearly established upon a lasting

foundation of mutual security, we should take a cautious view of

the intentions of the Warsaw Pact. These include the possibility that its members may try to use their massive military power, especially in conventional weapons, to bring political pressure

to bear perhaps selectively on Western countries in the hope.

of influencing their external and even their domestic policies.

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CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL