CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
20. In assessing the threat to Britain's security both military
and political aspects must be considered. In parallel with their
stated commitment to detente the Warsaw Pact countries maintain
forces on the mainland of Europe which are increasing in strength
and capability and appear far larger than could be necessary for
defensive purposes. They are composed, equipped and deployed in a manner which would enable them to undertake offensive operations at relatively short notice. The Soviet Union has vastly expanded
its Navy and can rapidly deploy substantial naval forces across the
maritime lines of communication between Europe and North America.
On the evidence of its national defence policies and its approach
to international negotiations, the intention of the Soviet Union
18 to achieve parity with the West in areas in which it has in the
past been inferior and to maintain superiority wherever it has this already. Chapter II paragraphs 2-9 and figs. 2 and 3 give
some details of the current imbalances of forces between NATO
and the Warsaw Pact. The Government does not believe that the
Warsaw Pact countries would contemplate outright aggression against
the West in present circumstances; but this is a political judge-
ment which neither alters the military facts nor necessarily holds
good for ever.
21.
Détente is not yet irreversible. It is the stated policy of
almost every Government, but it is still far from being permanent
and comprehensive. In common with its Allies, the Government is working to establish a safer, warmer and more constructive relation-
ship with the Soviet Union and its Allies. The recent visit to
the Soviet Union by the Prime Minister and the Foreign and
Commonwealth Secretary has opened the way to progress in this
direction. But until détente is clearly established upon a lasting
foundation of mutual security, we should take a cautious view of
the intentions of the Warsaw Pact. These include the possibility that its members may try to use their massive military power, especially in conventional weapons, to bring political pressure
to bear perhaps selectively on Western countries in the hope.
of influencing their external and even their domestic policies.
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CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL