TNAG-0539-FCO40-634-Strength-of-garrison-in-Hong-Kong-1975 — Page 108

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENPH

20.

In assessing the threat to Britain's security both military and

political aspects must be considered. In parallel with its stated

policy of detente the Warsaw Pact maintains forces on the mainland

of Europe which are increasing in strength and capability and are

far larger than are necessary for defence or for garrison duties.

They are composed, equipped and deployed in a manner appropriate to

offensive rather than defensive operations.

The Soviet Union has

vastly expanded its Navy and can rapidly deploy substantial naval

forces across the maritime lines of communication between Europe and

North America. On the evidence of its national defence policies

and its approach to international negotiations, the objectives of

the Soviet Union are at least to achieve parity with the West in areas

in which it has in the past been inferior. Chapter II paragraphs 2-9

and figs. 2 and 3 give some details of the military threat and current

imbalances of forces between NATO and the Warsaw Pact. There is no

reason to suppose that the Warsaw Pact is contemplating outright

aggression against the West; but this is a political judgement which

neither alters the military facts nor necessarily holds good for ever.

21. Detente is not irreversible. It could be brought to an end after

having served a limited purpose, or it could develop into something

more permanent and comprehensive. In common with its Allies, the

Government is working to establish a safer and more productive

relationship with the Soviet Union and its Allies. But until detente

is clearly established upon a lasting foundation of mutual security,

we must take a cautious view of the intentions of the Warsaw Pact,

including the possibility that it may try to use its massive military

power, especially in conventional weapons, to bring political pressure

perhaps selectively on Western countries in the hope of

influencing their external, and perhaps even more their domestic,

to bear

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CONFIDENTIAL