TOP SECRET
3.
We recognise that the above analysis makes no positive suggestions as to what might be said when we can no longer put off talking to the Chinese about the problem. It is perhaps premature to speculate on this since it involves assumptions about likely attitudes of the British and Chinese Governments of the day and we have not yet tried out different scenarios on Ministers. Provided both countries saw advantage in maintaining the status quo, however, the way forward might well be a well constructed under- standing on the future of Anglo/Chinese relations generally in which satisfactory arrangements for Hong Kong could be secured as one, but only one, element. It might be possible in these circumstances privately to recognise Chinese sovereignty over Hong Kong de jure in exchange for China letting it be known through their many channels in Hong Kong that they remain content with the continuing existence of the British administration. An outward and visible sign of this understanding might conceivably entail Chinese cooperation in the joint exploitation of the harbour, the airport, oil refinery facilities, a nuclear power station etc. in the Colony. Another sign could be the appointment of an official Chinese representative within the context of closer Anglo/Chinese relations (for our current attitude to which please see Brief no.
0.9). The way ahead might not, therefore, be as stony as the analysis in para. 2 above suggests; but this is not, in the official view, the moment to contemplate it.
4.
The Governor will be aware generally that the paper is in preparation and has discussed it with HM Ambassador, Peking, most recently when Mr Youde was in the Colony on his way back to his post a few days ago. Sir Murray has promised us a despatch on the question representing their joint views which may well differ from Office thinking, particularly on para. 3 above. The matter is regarded as so sensitive that, on Lord Goronwy-Roberts's instructions copies of the outline paper have not been sent either to Peking or to Hong Kong; and any discussion of the topic which the PUS designate has with the Governor will need to be strictly private.
2 SECRET
15.
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