TNAG-0478-FCO40-543-Strength-of-garrison-in-Hong-Kong-1974 — Page 153

SECRET

-3-

if we wanted to discuss our defence plans for Cyprus in isolation. Mr Healey draws particular attention to Cyprus in his letter and would no doubt welcome this. Subject to international developments, some public indication by HIG that the matter was under active consideration might also become appropriate before long.

(ii) Five Power Defence Arrangements

iii)

It is arguable that since Ministers have decided already that our presence in Singapore should be reduced to the absolute minimum, and that our partners in the Five Power Defence Arran ements are expecting severe cuts in our forces, a further round of consultations with them could now go ahead after discussions as necessary with the Americans. However, the Americans will see our arrange- ments in Singapore as being relevant to our arrangements for the Indian Ocean as a whole and they will find it difficult to talk usefully about them in isolation. Moreover the Indian Ocean is one of the most important of the non-NATO areas for them, and they may hold strong views about our intentions there which could prolong consultations with them. We have already had indications that they hope we will not give up our maritime reconnaissance effort in the Indian Ocean and even that they might be prepared to contribute financially to residual British activity in Singapore. They will also want to know what our intentions are about Gan, Mauritius and Masirali, which we cannot say until the delicate question of Diego Garcia has been more clearly resolved on both sides of the Atlantic. Serious difficulties in our relations with our four Common- wealth partners in the FFDA would be caused by a hasty run-down below a level of forces carrying some degree of credibility.

Malta It is similarly arguable that our present intentions as regards Malta (ie not to renew the Agreement when it expires in 1979 and to run down gradually between 1977 and 1979) fall clearly enough within our rights under the current Military Facilities Agreement for us to tell Mintoff of them fairly soon, especially since the Americans might logically expect us to be ready to say something about Malta if we were to talk to them about Cyprus. But if we did speak to Mintoff we would need to have a firm proposition to put to him, and to be absolutely sure that it was consistent with the provisions of the Military Facilities Agreement.

I recommend that the Secretary of State should send a letter to e Prime Minister on the lines of paragraphs 2 to 4 above, adding

SECRET

/that

!