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Political Implications
The
125. All the consequences described in paragraph 106 and
paragraph 115 on Options C and D would be liable to occur but
with a greater degree of certainty, disruption and finality.
point is not that UK reductions alone would bring about such a
situation but that they might well cause a chain reaction with a
major effect on the political will to stick together. MBFR
negotiations would probably be killed.
There would be great pressures
on the US Administration to make large troop withdrawals from Europe.
There would be further European unilateral reductions. The Northern
flank countries might well go neutral and the Southern flank
countries would make a great political fus8. NATO as an effective
alliance would be at risk, and it is almost certain that major changes
would have to be made. If the credibility of the American guarantee
had diminished beyond a certain point, these changes would have to
be fundamental, e.g. closer union with the FRG and France, and reliance
on a European nuclear force. British standing with friends and
adversaries would have been heavily reduced and our bargaining power
generally, both with the Americans and with other members of the
Community, would be greatly diminished.
Industrial Implications
126. In the defence industries the military order books for several
large firms in the shipbuilding and aviation fields would be
drastically cut, with possible consequences for levels of employment
as the effects of these cuts were felt. Some factories or units
would have to close; and thousands of work people would need to
find alternative employment. Some firms would withdraw from defence
work, and the maintenance of an indigenous design and development
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