TNAG-0476-FCO40-541-Strength-of-garrison-in-Hong-Kong-1974 — Page 23

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been Government policy that Britain should play her part on a scale

appropriate to her resources in countering certain threats to stability

outside Europe including protecting British territories overseas,

and meeting other obligations, some moral and others sanctioned by

treaty;

and should support British interests and influence by

effort in 'defence relations', for ample by helping to train local

forces.

Other Threats

28. The Joint Intelligence Committee (A) have also assessed current

and potential threats over the next 5 years to areas where British

forces have commitments other than continental Europe (JIC(A)(74) 18

of 10 May 1974: Annex D). They conclude that, with a few minor

exceptions, there is no serious threat within the period under review

of external aggression likely to involve British forces in any of

the areas examined. The exceptions are certain dependent territories

over which sovereignty is disputed; Belize, the Falkland Islands and

Gibraltar; but the threats against these territories are unlikely to

materialise so long as British Forces remain visibly committed to

their defence on the ground.

Hong Kong is a special case: while it

is indefensible against a determined Chinese attack, the probability

of such an attack is assessed as low in the period under review; at

the same time a significant reduction of the British garrison could

have adverse implications for the colony's internal security and for

control of the border including identification of aggression, and

could therefore lead to a situation in which Chinese efforts to take

over control of the colony from within were more likely.

Flexibility and insurance

29. It makes neither military nor economic sense to tie forces too

neatly to specific commitments;

It is therefore necessary to equip

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