TNAG-0474-FCO40-539-Contingency-planning-for-reinforcements-of-Hong-Kong-garriso-1974 — Page 5

Mr Trice

Defence Department

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PPI

14/095/2

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MOD CONTINGENCY PLANNING

1. In your minute of 7 January you asked for vicvs on whether reinforcement plans for Seychelles and Hong Kong could be considered as starters for abolition.

Seychelles

2.

In

There are no military forces in Seychelles. view of our responsibility for internal security and defence, and the possibility of both increasing OAU interest in the territory and potential threats to internal security, at present principally from the Opposition, I think that the reinforcement plan should be kept up-to-date. It is after all less than 2 years since we had internal security troubles. The Plan (Operation Bluebottle) has in any case only recently been revised.

Hong Kong

3. The reinforcement plan calls for 1,340 personnel. I am not sure how realistic it is to assume that such numbers could in fact be provided. But it seems to mo dangerous to argue that, since we accept that Hong Kong is indefensible from external attack, the reinforcement plan should be dropped. Taken to its logical con- clusion, this argument would suggest that there should be no garrison in Hong Kong at all. But as you know it is there for internal security reasons as well. One could imagine a situation (as may have happened in 1967) where locul employees might become unreliable and therefore need to be replaced by servicemen. It would be interesting to know who thor reinforcoments were in fuct sent in in 1967. Although Poking and the local communists take a reasonably friendly attitude at present, no-one knows what will happen when Mao Tse-tung and Chou En-lai die. So my proliminary view is that the plans should be maintained. In any case, given the size of the Hong Kong garrison, it seems somewhat out of proportion to abolish plans for reinforcement just to save the planners' time.

16 January 1974

R B Crows on

Hong Kong and Indian Ocean Department

DD 145177 21924) 100M 47, GM 1694°)

CONFIDENTIAL. Covering Ducrol

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