5.
12.
conditions of supply and demand. UK imports from these countries, in a tariff and quota situation, were 1 788 tonnes in 1971 and 1 173 tonnes in 1972. The gradual elimination of duties, beginning in 1974, coupled with the admittance of limited quantities duty free and the removal of quotas from April 1973 will lead, in normal circumstances to a substantial increase in UK imports from the Mediterranean Associates.
(2) It is intended that from 1 January 1974 the UK shall adopt
the EEC's GSP policy which involves the admission of
(3)
quantities of cotton yarn duty free from developing countries. This will encourage marginally economic exporters to sell yarn in the UK market. If yarn quotas are retained the effect on the total volume of imports will probably not be significant but, in the absence of quota, alignment with the Community's GSP offer would produce some increase in imports from the beneficiary countries, among whom Brazil is prominent.
Harmonisation with a Community policy that is somewhat more liberal than that of the UK in trade relations with the Communist countries suggests that an increase can be expected in the UK imports of Communist yarn. (The Six imported 1 132 tonnes from the Communist sources in 1972 and the UK only 10 tonnes).
The first of these points is by far the most important, but taken together they make it certain that UK imports of cotton yarn in 1974, even assuming the retention of quotas, would rise above
the level of 1972.
ESTIMATE OF FUTURE UK COTTON YARN IMPORTS, EXPORTS AND MARKET SHARES
13. Table 2 attempts two forecasts of 1974 and 1975 UK cotton yarn imports assuming, in the first case, that quotas on imports from those countries whose trade is now restricted are maintained and, in the second case, that these quotas end in 1973. The sub totals show the forecast imports for all the sources which the UK has traditionally restrained rising from 10 000 tonnes in 1972 to 15 800 tonnes in 1975 (with quotas) and to 21 800 tonnes (without quotas). It is assumed that in the latter situation imports from the remainder of the EEC would rise by a smaller amount than if quotas were maintained (but that imports from EFTA, mainly Portugal, would not be affected): this partial offset is reflected in the last line of the table which nevertheless anticipates an increase from 18 900 to 28 000 or 32 000 tonnes between 1972 and 1975. The higher figure would contain an appreciably bigger percentage of yarn from potentially low price sources.
TABLE 2
UK COTTON YARN IMPORTS
(metric tons)
1972
1974 estimate estimate
WITH QUOTAS
1975
1974 estimate
WITHOUT QUOTAS
1975 estimate
Quota controlled
(1973) countries
EEC Associates
8 800
1 200
9 000
3.000
Communist countries
400
9 000
6.000
800
12 000
15 000
Sub total
10 000
12 400
DEC
2 600
4 000
EFTA
6 200
6 500
Other countries
100
200
15 800
5 000
7 000
200
3 000
400
15 400
3 000
6 000
800
TOTAL
18 900
23 100
28 000
6 500
200
25 100
21 800
3. 000
7 000
200
32 000
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